Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 116,384
2 South Dakota 104,677
3 Iowa 82,655
4 Wisconsin 82,124
5 Nebraska 78,867
6 Utah 75,083
7 Rhode Island 71,938
8 Idaho 70,413
9 Montana 69,952
10 Wyoming 69,649
11 Tennessee 69,019
12 Illinois 68,837
13 Minnesota 68,527
14 Kansas 67,930
15 Indiana 65,911
16 Arkansas 63,458
17 Nevada 63,133
18 Mississippi 62,376
19 Alabama 62,334
20 Oklahoma 61,973
21 Missouri 60,939
22 New Mexico 59,307
23 Louisiana 59,272
24 Arizona 59,259
25 Alaska 57,762
26 Florida 53,791
27 Texas 52,949
28 Kentucky 52,422
29 Colorado 51,832
30 Georgia 50,962
31 South Carolina 50,521
32 Ohio 50,026
33 Delaware 49,220
34 Michigan 48,285
35 New Jersey 46,945
36 Connecticut 44,254
37 Massachusetts 44,122
38 California 43,430
39 North Carolina 43,251
40 New York 41,582
41 Pennsylvania 41,024
42 Maryland 40,038
43 West Virginia 37,301
44 District of Columbia 36,276
45 Virginia 34,238
46 Puerto Rico 30,466
47 Washington 28,274
48 New Hampshire 24,588
49 Oregon 23,146
50 Hawaii 13,874
51 Maine 12,878
52 Vermont 9,629

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,696
2 Tennessee 1,397
3 California 1,057
4 Kansas 1,057
5 Arizona 1,038
6 Connecticut 1,030
7 Idaho 856
8 Delaware 845
9 Indiana 765
10 Pennsylvania 762
11 Nevada 753
12 New Mexico 724
13 Utah 708
14 Mississippi 693
15 Alabama 680
16 West Virginia 675
17 Massachusetts 654
18 Arkansas 640
19 Oklahoma 636
20 Texas 635
21 Ohio 628
22 New Hampshire 607
23 Nebraska 606
24 Alaska 602
25 South Dakota 590
26 Michigan 587
27 Missouri 584
28 Illinois 575
29 Kentucky 567
30 Georgia 549
31 Wyoming 547
32 New Jersey 542
33 North Carolina 539
34 Wisconsin 527
35 South Carolina 512
36 Colorado 510
37 Louisiana 497
38 New York 481
39 Iowa 479
40 Florida 456
41 Montana 455
42 Minnesota 448
43 Virginia 403
44 Maryland 390
45 North Dakota 356
46 Maine 344
47 District of Columbia 343
48 Oregon 298
49 Washington 259
50 Vermont 136
51 Puerto Rico 130
52 Hawaii 80

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,026
2 New York 1,825
3 Massachusetts 1,670
4 North Dakota 1,575
5 Connecticut 1,544
6 Rhode Island 1,500
7 Louisiana 1,491
8 South Dakota 1,469
9 Mississippi 1,442
10 Illinois 1,245
11 Michigan 1,159
12 Iowa 1,063
13 Indiana 1,054
14 Arizona 1,038
15 Pennsylvania 1,031
16 District of Columbia 1,020
17 Arkansas 1,018
18 New Mexico 977
19 Florida 940
20 Georgia 933
21 South Carolina 932
22 Maryland 871
23 Texas 864
24 Nevada 863
25 Alabama 856
26 Delaware 855
27 Minnesota 821
28 Missouri 821
29 Tennessee 821
30 Montana 782
31 Kansas 773
32 Wisconsin 772
33 Nebraska 755
34 Colorado 727
35 Idaho 697
36 Ohio 665
37 West Virginia 579
38 North Carolina 574
39 Kentucky 566
40 Wyoming 566
41 California 553
42 Oklahoma 537
43 Virginia 528
44 New Hampshire 459
45 Washington 412
46 Puerto Rico 410
47 Utah 343
48 Oregon 300
49 Alaska 237
50 Maine 198
51 Hawaii 194
52 Vermont 168

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 25
2 Kansas 20
3 North Dakota 18
4 Iowa 15
5 Missouri 15
6 Pennsylvania 15
7 South Dakota 15
8 Arkansas 14
9 Indiana 14
10 New Mexico 14
11 Connecticut 13
12 Michigan 13
13 West Virginia 13
14 Colorado 12
15 Idaho 12
16 Nebraska 12
17 Nevada 12
18 Illinois 11
19 Mississippi 10
20 Arizona 9
21 New Jersey 9
22 Tennessee 9
23 Louisiana 8
24 Maryland 8
25 Ohio 8
26 Oregon 8
27 Wisconsin 8
28 California 7
29 Massachusetts 7
30 Minnesota 7
31 Alabama 6
32 Texas 6
33 Delaware 5
34 Florida 5
35 Kentucky 5
36 Montana 5
37 New Hampshire 5
38 New York 5
39 North Carolina 5
40 Oklahoma 5
41 Vermont 5
42 Georgia 4
43 Puerto Rico 4
44 Utah 4
45 Washington 4
46 Wyoming 4
47 South Carolina 3
48 Virginia 3
49 Alaska 2
50 District of Columbia 2
51 Maine 2
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 241,874 1 99
Norton Kansas 213,766 2 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 207,506 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 207,002 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 205,403 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 83,326 445 85
Richland South Carolina 56,153 1478 52
York South Carolina 45,075 2087 33
Orange California 35,738 2500 20
Pierce Washington 26,350 2792 11

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 4 99
Gregory South Dakota 5,735 5 99
Richland South Carolina 758 1638 47
Davidson Tennessee 693 1787 43
York South Carolina 562 2027 35
Orange California 541 2076 33
Pierce Washington 330 2536 19

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons